Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, February 24th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with stocks recovering a good part of yesterday’s sell-off. The Dow is up 301 points and the Nasdaq is up 78 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.03%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Monday’s early pricing.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.03%

301

Dow

49,105

78

NASDAQ

22,705

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Consumer Confidence Index

The Conference Board announced late this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February stands at 91.2. This was much higher than the 87.3 that was expected, but a sizable upward revision of January’s reading minimizes the importance of February's reading. January was revised from the previously announced 84.5 to 89.0. While the reading itself is higher than predicted, the monthly increase is actually inline with expectations. Accordingly, we haven’t seen much of a response to the news in bond trading or this morning’s mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Domestic Political Issues

There is no relevant economic data set for release tomorrow. President Trump’s State of the Union address late this evening will likely be the primary reason if there is a noticeable change in rates tomorrow morning. These speeches usually draw just a short-term knee-jerk reaction in the markets and do not begin a long-term trend in either direction. In other words, we may see the bond market and mortgage rates react tomorrow morning to something said in his speech, but it will likely be short-lived and not have a lasting impact on rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first of this week’s two potentially relevant Treasury auctions is taking place tomorrow. 5-year Notes are being sold tomorrow, followed by 7-year Notes Thursday. These sales generally do not directly move mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment a bit. A poor auction means there was a lackluster demand from investors that could lead to broader selling in the bond market. The result may be a minor upward revision to mortgage rates. However, sales with a strong demand for the securities usually bring additional funds into the bond market, leading to slightly lower mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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BRE # 01346989
Hale Realty
559-960-3493
chris@halerealty.net
1188 S. Fowler Ave.
Fresno, CA 93727


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